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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

But this year's race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still